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Real-Time Statistical Model for COVID-19 – Jack Syage

This blog is dedicated to my beloved Aunt Nora who died on 4/9/20 of COVID-19 in NY. She was very vibrant and healthy but she was 89.

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Resources

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

This is my Orange County Business Journal May 2020 Leader Board article

This is my model published in MedRxiv

This is my refined model published in MedRxiv

This is my Orange County Business Journal Feb 2021 Leader Board article

This is a must read!

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

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Post History

March 2026
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Posts

  • 32. Monthly Update: The U.S. is in an Extraordinary Recovery while Most of the World Stumbles
  • 31. Monthly Update: The World is in Recovery and It May be for Real
  • 30. Monthly Update: Ho Hum. Just another 90,000 U.S. Covid-19 Deaths in the Last Month.
  • 29. Special Update on California: Main Message – Don’t Be Stupid, Wear a Mask!
  • 28. Monthly Update: The U.S. Leads the World in Pandemic Neglect. California is Soaring, but Still Below National Average.
  • 27. Monthly Update: Europe Raging Again and the U.S. Not Far Behind. California Relatively Mild but Escalation Looming.
  • Daily Rumblings – II
  • 26. Biweekly (Monthly) Update: Europe Exploding Again. The U.S. Will Never Learn and Orange County is Playing with Numbers.
  • 25. Biweekly Update: 200,000 Deaths!!! California is Improving, U.S. is Not. Europe Rising
  • 24. Biweekly Update: Is California Really Improving and What’s Up with Spain?
  • 23. Biweekly Update: The U.S. has Given Up
  • 22. Biweekly Update: Is the U.S. a Third-World Nation?
  • 21. Biweekly Update: A New Model
  • 20. What’s Going on in California?
  • 19. Weekly Update: The Good Get Better, The Bad Get Worse
  • 18. Weekly Update: Watch Out California
  • Daily Rumblings
  • 17. Weekly Update: Kudos to NY and NJ
  • 16. Can Orange County, CA Begin Opening this Week?
  • 15. Weekly Update: Recovery at Hand but Slower than Expected
  • 14. Benchmarking COVID-19 Forecasting Models
  • 13. Weekly Update: Further Worldwide Recovery; U.S. May Have Reached its Peak
  • 12. Weekly Update: All Populations are in Recovery
  • 11. Recommended Guidelines for Easing of Social Distancing
  • 10. Weekly Update: The World is Recovering
  • 9. Weekly Update: Europe Improves, U.S. Doesn’t
  • 8. A Simple Model for Forecasting Final Fatalities
  • 7. Weekly Update: Grim News
  • 6. Weekly Forecasts of COVID-19 Death and Prevalence
  • 5. How are the U.S. States Doing?

Authors

  • 1 jacksyage
    • 32. Monthly Update: The U.S. is in an Extraordinary Recovery while Most of the World Stumbles
    • 31. Monthly Update: The World is in Recovery and It May be for Real
    • 30. Monthly Update: Ho Hum. Just another 90,000 U.S. Covid-19 Deaths in the Last Month.
    • 29. Special Update on California: Main Message – Don’t Be Stupid, Wear a Mask!
    • 28. Monthly Update: The U.S. Leads the World in Pandemic Neglect. California is Soaring, but Still Below National Average.
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